CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T06:13Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-11 23:40
 - Time at C2: 2023-07-11 19:24
 - Radial speed: 858.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S35E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 663.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-14 06:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.82 hours)
Lead Time: 48.48 hour(s)
Difference: 9.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-12T15:26Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement